March 31, 2023 - BY Admin

Ranking the NHL's Norris Trophy contenders: Can anyone catch Erik Karlsson?

The Norris Trophy is the only major NHL honor that is still up for grabs for the third year in a row. Connor McDavid should win the Hart Cup unanimously, while Patrice Bergeron, Linus Ullmark, and Jim Montgomery will return the Selke, Vezina, and Jack Adams awards to Boston, accordingly, and Matty Beniers is the obvious favorite for the Calder.


The Norris Trophy debate welcomes several candidates once again, in part because we have a hazy idea of what the greatest defender looks like. Should the trophy be awarded to the NHL's greatest offensive defender, or should the sum of their games be considered?


Without further ado, here’s our breakdown of the Norris Trophy race.


Note: All stats current prior to games played on Wednesday, March 29.


Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns, Carolina Hurricanes

We’ve grouped Burns and Slavin together as they both present similar cases, which is to be expected as one of the NHL’s most commonly-used pairings. Burns has been an all-around dynamo, whereas Slavin has earned a reputation as a human eraser on the back end.


Among the leading contenders, Slavin’s counting stats won’t move the needle. Six goals and 23 points in 67 games isn’t bad by any means, but there are probably some casual fans who still aren’t acquainted with the inner workings of his game. Slavin is perhaps the best 2-on-1 defender in the league and his innate ability to separate forwards from the puck makes him a headache to account for.


Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche

Makar would be the runaway choice if you asked players, coaches, or general managers about which defenseman they’d take first. The reigning Norris and Conn Smythe Trophy winner has been an electrifying presence for the Avalanche and though the eye test doesn’t factor into this debate, Makar’s otherworldly speed has left the league’s press corps in awe.


So why aren’t we higher on Makar? He’s only played 58 games and it’s a season-long award. Makar can top out at 67 games, which is a large enough sample. But considering that his primary competition for the award — Karlsson, Adam Fox, Rasmus Dahlin, Hampus Lindholm, Drew Doughty among them — haven’t missed a beat all season, Makar would need an unequivocal advantage over the field. We’re not ruling out another Conn Smythe Trophy but in a tight race, the time he missed works against him for the Norris.


Hampus Lindholm, Boston Bruins

Lindholm has been the best defenseman for the runaway juggernaut Bruins this season — yes, better than Charlie McAvoy. Lindholm may not have the same name recognition as others on this list, but he’s easily been one of the NHL’s best defenders this season.


Lindholm has been on the ice for 72 goals versus 33 against at 5-on-5, while the Bruins control just under 57 percent of the expected goals. Linus Ullmark may be running away with the Vezina, but it’s telling that the Bruins also have a ridiculous 94.45 save percentage when Lindholm is out there. It was always possible that Lindholm, the sixth overall pick in 2012, could tap into superstardom and he’s found a new gear since being traded from Anaheim in March 2022. Plus-minus isn’t nearly as valuable as it was once considered, but Lindholm leads the NHL at plus-46.


Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres

Dahlin is entering the prime of his career and he’s elevated his game to a different tier this season as he’s already smashed career-bests with 14 goals and 65 points in 69 games. The 2018 first-overall pick has gone under the radar in the past but with Dahlin leading the Sabres’ first serious bid for the postseason in recent memory, he’s amplified his game into the national conversation.


Buffalo forward Jordan Greenway has a unique perspective, squaring off against Dahlin as an opponent with the Minnesota Wild before joining the Sabres at the NHL trade deadline.


Adam Fox, New York Rangers

This race ultimately feels like a two-man race between Adam Fox and Karlsson. Fox, who won the award in 2021, ranks first in GSVA among all defensemen, while posting 11 goals and 67 points in 74 games. He’s still carrying a tremendous workload, averaging 24:12 per game, while the Rangers control nearly 55 percent of the expected goals when he’s on the ice at 5-on-5. It’s clear the Rangers dominate every facet of the game when Fox is overseeing the ice, as he’s been on for 64 goals versus 43 against at even strength.


Erik Karlsson, San Jose Sharks

Karlsson is having an offensive season for the ages, leading all players in points at 5-on-5 — yes, all players, not just blueliners. More simply, Karlsson’s 22 goals and 91 points in 74 games would be considered elite in any era and he’s having one of the best seasons of his career. Karlsson is logging the third-most minutes per game at 25:46 for an abysmal Sharks team and virtually every player on the team has improved splits when he’s out there in support.


If the award has morphed into the NHL’s best offensive defenseman, then it should go to Karlsson. It’s an uneasy proposition for me, given how the Sharks fared on the other side of the ice, where Karlsson hasn’t suppressed goals meaningfully. In our midseason awards, we gave the nod to Karlsson over Fox by the slightest of edges and after some flip-flopping, that’s where we stand now.


So, what’s the verdict?


1) Erik Karlsson


2) Adam Fox


3) Hampus Lindholm


4) Cale Makar


5) Rasmus Dahlin


6) Brent Burns


7) Jaccob Slavin


Honorable mentions:


Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg Jets


Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks


Dougie Hamilton, New Jersey Devils


Charlie McAvoy, Boston Bruins


Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings


Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars