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The bloodbaths in NFL survivor pools this year have been so constant and massive that they could fill up every Red Cross blood bank on the planet. More than 56% of entries in Week 6 tested positive for getting knocked out, as three of the four most popular picks lost.
Let's take a quick look at last week's donation before we tap into Week 7:
Best Bets: 0-2 (YTD: 5-5)
Leans: 1-0 (YTD: 8-1)
Traps to avoid: 2 eliminations avoided (YTD: 11)
On to the Week 7 picks!
It's usually a good idea to fade an overwhelmingly popular pick, but pools have already thinned down drastically, the Patriots have little future value, and I hate virtually every pick outside of the top two this week.
Bill Belichick versus Justin Fields is a mismatch made in heaven. The Bears quarterback owns the lowest completion percentage in the league (54.8%) and is tied with Carson Wentz for the most sacks taken (23). Even the world's worst hoarders have to cringe at Fields' reluctance to get rid of the football. Denver is the only team in the NFL averaging less points per game than the Bears (15.5). If you want a snapshot of how dysfunctional this offense is, they were hit with a delay of game penalty on their very first offensive play of the game in Week 5. New England's defense has been extremely solid this year, ranking seventh in DVOA and surrendering the eighth-fewest points per drive. Chicago's offense ranks 30th in DVOA. The Bears run defense has been getting rocked to the tune of 163 rushing yards per game. That sets up nicely for Rhamondre Stevenson and the Patriots, who are third-best in rushing EPA. Belichick is undefeated in his last five outings versus Chicago and I expect him to make it six in a row on Monday night.
The Panthers offense continues to crumble like a Bojangle's biscuit. It ranks last in DVOA, points per drive, EPA per play, success rate, and watchability. If there's a word in the English language to describa bad miracle, that was P.J. Walker's Week 6. Carolina's QB somehow ended his day with a negative average depth of target. This offense stinks and they're about to get rolled by an elite Tampa Bay defense. Just under 19% of entries are on the Bucs, making them the second-most popular pick. Tampa's future value lies mainly in home games versus the Seahawks and Panthers.
Are the Giants the most fraudulent 5-1 team in the history of the NFL? They're 2.3 wins over expected and their defense ranks 30th in DVOA. I've been impressed by the offense Brian Daboll has cooked up with the limited ingredients in his pantry, but Jacksonville's 10th-ranked defense is likely to spoil his dinner party. Giants left tackle Andrew Thomas and center Jon Feliciano are both banged up and questionable to play. Thomas is the best offensive lineman in football right now, so it would be huge for the Jags if he missed this contest or played at less than 100%. Even with Thomas dominating, New York's offensive line ranks 25th in Pass Block Win Rate and 22nd in Run Block Win Rate. Jacksonville's defense ranks first in Pass Rush Win Rate and seventh in Run Stop Win Rate.
There are just too many question marks in this game. Detroit is coming off a bye, key pieces like Amon-Ra St. Brown should be healthier, and who knows how Dak Prescott will look in his first game back from a broken thumb. I'll wait to see how these teams and players fare before I take or fade them. Nearly 18% of entries are on the Cowboys, who are the third-most popular pick this week.
The Raiders defense is giving up the fourth-most points per drive and that was before cornerback Nate Hobbs went on injured reserve. It doesn't sound like tight end Darren Waller is going to suit up, either. Houston's defense is playing surprisingly well under Cover 2 king Lovie Smith, and rookie running back Dameon Pierce is a certified stud. Las Vegas is the fourth-most popular pick in Week 7, with 16.58% on the silver and black.
Arthur Smith's brand of bullyball is working so well, he used the lunch money he stole from the Niners last week to treat his offensive linemen to beers. Cincinnati's defense is formidable against the pass, but they rank 30th in Run Stop Win Rate. Consider the run established. The Bengals are the fifth-most popular selection, at 4.38%.
Daniel Weinman was crowned winner of the 2023 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event on Monday, taking home a record breaking $12.1 million in winnings. Weinman had to outlast the other 10,043 entrants to take home the prize and get his hands on his share of live poker’s largest ever prize pool – a staggering $93,399,900. As well as taking home the prize money, 35-year-old Weinman also got his hands on the WSOP Main Event bracelet. The huge bracelet contains 500 grams of 10-karat yellow gold, as well as 2,352 various precious gemstones.
Daniel Weinman won the World Series of Poker's main event world championship on Monday in Las Vegas, earning $12.1 million along the way. Playing in the tournament for a 16th year, Weinman was tops in a deep pool of 10,043 players vying for $93.39 million. His victory came after just 164 hands at the final table. "I was honestly on the fence about even coming back and playing this tournament," the 35-year-old Atlanta native told reporters afterward. Weinman's final table featured Jan-Peter Jachtmann, who landed in fourth place and took home $3 million, as well as Toby Lewis, who finished seventh and secured $1.42 million. According to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the main event's entry pool far outpaced the previous record of 8,773 set in 2006. "I've always kind of felt that poker was kind of going in a dying direction, but to see the numbers at the World Series this year has been incredible," Weinman said. "And to win this main event, it doesn't feel real. I mean, [there's] so much luck in a poker tournament. I thought I played very well." Steven Jones finished second, securing $6.5 million. And Adam Walton settled for third and a $4 million prize.
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