NBA offseason winners and lose...

The NBA never really sleeps but it tends to power down after the last of the sickos leaves Las Vegas. There are unrestricted free agents still unsigned, restricted types still waiting on that offer and a couple of superstars still having staring contests, but by and large, the major business of the association’s 2023 offseason has concluded. So let’s get our arms around it.

What follows is a stab at a first draft of history, a thumbnail sketch of who seems to have helped themselves through several weeks of roster-remaking, and who … well, about whom we’ve got some questions. There will likely be more winners than losers by the end of it, because it’s hot outside, so why find more reasons to be mad?

We begin with a holding note:

PENDING: The Damian Lillard and James Harden sagas

The eventual resolutions of the dramas still unfolding in Portland and Philadelphia could play a major role in shaping next season’s title chase. Such is life when you’re dealing with last season’s No. 3 scorer (Lillard) and leading assist man (Harden), a Heat team that just made the NBA Finals, a 76ers side boasting the reigning MVP that just changed championship coaches, and a Clippers franchise poised to run a top-three payroll for the third straight year.

I’ve written about the Harden and Dame situations recently; not much has changed since I did. If and when something gets done, we’ll judge that new business accordingly.

(One clear winner, though? Jerami Grant. That man just got $160 million, and those direct deposits will hit no matter what comes next. Drinks are on you, boss.)

WINNER: Los Angeles Lakers

You can quibble over the wisdom of a three-year, $51 million bet that Rui Hachimura’s playoff performance — 48.7% from 3-point range, up from 34.7% for his career — was less a fluke than a new normal. Ditto for ponying up $18 million a year to bring back D’Angelo Russell, who saw his performance and workload diminish over the course of L.A.’s playoff run. Both played roles in the Lakers’ post-trade-deadline turnaround, though, and look like solid innings-eating fits next to LeBron James and Anthony Davis. When you factor in the likelihood that Austin Reaves winds up being a steal at $54 million over four years — a deal that will account for less than 10% of the salary cap every season it runs — L.A.’s re-signings seem like net positives.

The Lakers also added Gabe Vincent, a quality complementary shooter and defender adept at playing off a primary-playmaking wing, got solid veteran combo forward Taurean Prince (38.4% from deep over the last three seasons) on the $4.5 million biannual exception and took minimum-salaried flyers on ex-lottery picks Cam Reddish and Jaxson Hayes. You wonder if they’ll need a better backup plan at the 5 than Hayes to avoid overtaxing James and Hachimura as small-ball centers during the regular season. But they should have enough wing depth — including rising sophomore Max Christie, who looked great at Summer League, and rookie Jalen Hood-Schifino — to give head coach Darvin Ham a ton of flexibility in finding the right lineups around Davis and James (who, quelle surprise!, decided against retiring after all).

The Lakers, as ever, will go as far as LeBron and AD will take them. But “surround those superstars with guys who can shoot and defend” is a recipe that has produced two conference finals appearances and one title. There are worse ideas to double down on.

LOSER: Toronto Raptors

The Raps were one of the most interesting teams entering free agency because it seemed like they’d finally have to decide if they were trying to compete for championships or, if not necessarily rebuild, then at least regroup. But after letting Fred VanVleet walk to Houston, paying $80 million to bring back Jakob Poeltl and signing stopgaps Dennis Schröder and Jalen McDaniels, it feels like Toronto still doesn’t know which way to go.

MOST WILLING TO PAY A PREMIUM FOR DECENCY: Houston Rockets

History will judge whether the total outlay was excessive for a team in Houston’s position. But there’s something to be said for responding to being in that position by saying, “Hey, what if we tried not sucking?”

The first step in getting out of that position is going from abysmal to competitive, and the Rockets paid through the nose in pursuit of getting there. It took a three-year, $128.5 million max — with, notably, a club option for Year 3 — to land VanVleet, but the 29-year-old brings a level of maturity and competence Houston has lacked. I’m not entirely sure why it took a fully guaranteed $86 million to sign Dillon Brooks after his disastrous dismount from the 2023 postseason. But a Rockets team that finished 27th or worse in defensive efficiency three years running desperately needed an upgrade on that end; Brooks, for all his warts, is one of the game’s best stoppers.

WINNER: Phoenix Suns

What do you do when your two-superstar offense runs out of juice in the biggest games of the season? Go get another one.

OK, maybe Bradley Beal isn’t a “superstar.” He’s pretty damn good, though, and by boosting him out of Washington, the Suns can re-enter the fray next spring with a third option more potent, more versatile and more than eight years younger than Chris Paul. (Though Beal, who hasn’t played more than 60 games since 2019-20, brings his own fair share of injury concerns.)

The Suns’ reputed new starting point guard isn’t nearly the playmaker that CP3 is. But the bet here is that a trio of Beal, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker has enough collective playmaking chops — and more than enough firepower — to not only mitigate Paul’s loss, but vault back to the top of the offensive efficiency charts. Also, it’s worth remembering that Booker averaged 7.2 assists per game with a 2.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in the playoffs; I’m guessing he’ll spend the most time on the ball in Phoenix next season.

SOMETIMES WHEN YOU WIN, YOU REALLY LOSE, AND SOMETIMES WHEN YOU LOSE, YOU REALLY WIN: Washington Wizards

Three months ago, the Wizards seemed ready to commit about $400 million to Beal, Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma — a mind-boggling sum for the core of a 35-47 team without a prayer of serious success. But then Ted Leonsis hired Michael Winger away from the Clippers and empowered his new team president to operate as he saw fit — even if it meant a teardown. Before you knew it, Beal was in Phoenix, Porzingis was in Boston, and the Wizards’ most lucrative contract belonged to Daniel Gafford. (He plays center.)

That wouldn’t last long. Kuzma came back on a new four-year pact, and Jordan Poole (and his four-year, $128 million contract) found his way to D.C. from Golden State on the tail end of the CP3-for-Beal deal. But while the Wizards didn’t net nearly the kind of picks-and-young-talent haul you’d expect for players of Beal and Porzingis’ caliber, Winger and Co. have at least cleared a new path to tomorrow.

LOSER: Denver Nuggets

I mean no disrespect to the reigning, defending, undisputed champions of the world! I fully understand that the game plan is to elevate impressive rising sophomore Christian Braun, give fellow 2022 first-rounder Peyton Watson a longer look, hope that veteran Justin Holiday can bridge the gap, and see if Michael Malone’s staff — including Coach Jokić — can crank out some more player-development success stories from the ranks of Zeke Nnaji, Collin Gillespie and 2023 rookies Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett and Hunter Tyson (who just shot his way to the All-Summer League First Team).

And, obviously, what happens further down the rotation might not matter quite as much as the continuity at the top.

“Did they lose Jamal Murray? Did they lose Joker?” Lakers head coach Darvin Ham said during a recent appearance on the "#thisleague Uncut podcast with Chris Haynes and Marc Stein." “If they didn’t lose those two, then they really didn’t lose a damn thing.”

I’m just saying, though: When you lose the sixth (Bruce Brown) and seventh (Jeff Green) men from your title team without making any major additions, that doesn’t seem like the best thing. Especially in a West that seems to be getting only tougher from top to bottom.

ADDITIONAL LOSER: Me, if Michael Malone sees this

When I tell you that I will be copping pleas immediately if this man starts walking down on me:

I’m a father of two who writes for a living, man. I don’t need those problems.

WINNER: Oklahoma City Thunder

I liked what OKC did on draft night, renting its cap space to Dallas to jump up a couple of spots to land Kentucky’s Cason Wallace, adding yet another athletic, physical defender to what’s becoming one hell of a perimeter corps. That group of ball-handlers got even deeper when Sam Presti signed 29-year-old Serbian guard Vasilije Micić — a 6-foot-5 scorer who most recently starred for Turkish club Anadolu Efes, winning a pair of EuroLeague championships and 2021 EuroLeague MVP — to a three-year, $23.5 million deal.

What makes the Thunder’s offseason particularly exciting, though, is what’s finally shown up in the frontcourt to pair with all those guards. Friends, Chet Holmgren looks good:

With All-NBA guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the controls, ascendant playmakers Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams in the mix, and Micić on the way, Oklahoma City has the tools to improve on last season’s 16th-place finish in offensive efficiency. It’s Holmgren, though, who represents the Thunder’s best hope for a more meteoric rise — a top-10 defense, a five-out attack with shooting and playmaking across the board, and enough length, tenacity and talent at every position to make the leap from the play-in back to the postseason proper.

WINNER: Dallas Mavericks

Perhaps you reject this premise on the grounds that, by trading a whole bunch of stuff for Kyrie Irving, and then subsequently re-signing Irving to a three-year, $120 million contract, the Mavs have effectively constructed their organization on a faultline. I get it. If you’re grading based on what Dallas has done from just that point on, though? Tough not to like it.

Bringing Irving back alongside Luka Dončić guarantees Jason Kidd will field an attack featuring two of the most dangerous offensive players on the planet — a tandem in whose limited minutes together the Mavericks torched opponents to the tune of nearly 122 points per 100 possessions. From there, Mavs president Nico Harrison and Co. filled out the roster around the superstar pairing, turning the No. 10 draft pick into a pair of first-round selections: Duke center Dereck Lively II and Marquette wing Olivier-Maxence Prosper, a pair of big defenders with offensive upside. Offloading Davis Bertans’ contract into Oklahoma City’s cap space also created a traded player exception that allowed the Mavs to take in veteran Kings center Richaun Holmes, another screen-and-dive big man who could mesh nicely with Luka and Kyrie.