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The spread for the NCAA tourney title game on Monday night is quite large. At BetMGM, San Diego State is a 7.5-point loser. It's also unusual for a championship game underdog of that magnitude to triumph square up.
The NCAA tournament is famous in part because of major shocks. They are, however, relatively uncommon once the Final Four begins. First, once the tourney hits the final three games, there aren't many big spreads. Also, when a squad is as heavily favored as UConn is on Monday night, they typically take care of business. San Diego State would not be the greatest surprise in a championship game, but it would be close.
The biggest upsets in title game history
According to John Ewing of BetMGM had a list of the five straight-up upsets that have happened when the point spread is 7.5 or more. This was for all Final Four games:
The 1991 Duke win and 1998 Utah win happened in the national semifinals. That leaves 1999 UConn, 1985 Villanova and 1988 Kansas as the three title game upsets at that threshold.
The 1999 UConn team was different than the other two because it was a No. 1 seed. It speaks to the respect that loaded Duke team got that it was nearly a 10-point favorite over another No. 1 seed in a title game. The other two teams are probably a better comp for SDSU.
Can SDSU pull off the upset?
The 1985 Wildcats were a No. 8 seed. The 1988 Jayhawks were a No. 6 seed. They both entered the championship game against strong No. 1 seeds; Georgetown faced Villanova and Oklahoma took on Kansas.
UConn isn't a No. 1 seed but has played like it. They were an analytics darling despite being a No. 4 seed and have won all five tournament games by double digits, covering the spread in each one. San Diego State is a No. 5 seed, so not exactly Villanova or Kansas from decades ago, but is still in the championship game for the first time. The Mountain West had never been to an Elite Eight before the Aztecs, much less play on the final Monday of the season.
The combination of UConn's strong play and overall computer numbers, and San Diego State being an untraditional title game participant has led to a large spread for the title game. It isn't unprecedented for a big underdog to win straight up in the championship game, though it is rare. There are at least three teams the Aztecs can look back on for inspiration.
Daniel Weinman was crowned winner of the 2023 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event on Monday, taking home a record breaking $12.1 million in winnings. Weinman had to outlast the other 10,043 entrants to take home the prize and get his hands on his share of live poker’s largest ever prize pool – a staggering $93,399,900. As well as taking home the prize money, 35-year-old Weinman also got his hands on the WSOP Main Event bracelet. The huge bracelet contains 500 grams of 10-karat yellow gold, as well as 2,352 various precious gemstones.
Daniel Weinman won the World Series of Poker's main event world championship on Monday in Las Vegas, earning $12.1 million along the way. Playing in the tournament for a 16th year, Weinman was tops in a deep pool of 10,043 players vying for $93.39 million. His victory came after just 164 hands at the final table. "I was honestly on the fence about even coming back and playing this tournament," the 35-year-old Atlanta native told reporters afterward. Weinman's final table featured Jan-Peter Jachtmann, who landed in fourth place and took home $3 million, as well as Toby Lewis, who finished seventh and secured $1.42 million. According to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the main event's entry pool far outpaced the previous record of 8,773 set in 2006. "I've always kind of felt that poker was kind of going in a dying direction, but to see the numbers at the World Series this year has been incredible," Weinman said. "And to win this main event, it doesn't feel real. I mean, [there's] so much luck in a poker tournament. I thought I played very well." Steven Jones finished second, securing $6.5 million. And Adam Walton settled for third and a $4 million prize.
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