October 17, 2022 - BY Admin

How oddsmakers approach NBA tankers, most popular bets and betting stats

The season tips off Tuesday with no consensus title favorite. Depending on what sportsbook you look at, the Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors, Milwaukee Bucks or Los Angeles Clippers are the favorites to win the championship. None of them have odds better than 5-1. According to ESPN Stats and Information, it's the first time in 35 years that the preseason favorite has had odds this long.

The race at the bottom is equally as competitive. Five teams -- the  Oklahoma City Thunder, Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets and Utah Jazz-have season-win totals of less than 25. That's the most in any 82-game season in the last 20 years, according to sports betting archive SportsOddsHistory.com.

Each of the bottom five team's title odds, which are as long as 2,000-1 at some sportsbooks, reflect a better chance at earning a lottery pick and a shot at coveted prospect Victor Wembanyama than winning a championship. Spurs coach Gregg Popovich has characterized his team's title chances as "not likely," and the Jazz's current win total of 23.5 at Caesars Sports is 25.5 fewer wins than they won last season. Utah traded away stars Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert in the offseason.

Garriock noted, however, that tanking teams have a bigger impact on in-play wagering and "will cough up leads at greater rates than typical double-digit dogs."

Over the past three seasons, the teams that ended with five worst records during the regular season covered the spread in approximately 45.7% of games, excluding pushes.

NBA oddsmaker's surprise team


• "I'm high on Sacramento," Jeff Sherman, a respected Las Vegas bookmaker who oversees NBA odds for the Super Book, said.

"I played them over 32.5 wins. I just think the Kings with their personnel, the free agency moves and draft pick ... I lik Keegan Murray a lot ... that they're going to be in every game every night, whether it's against the top teams or the bottom teams."

Pop's betting advice


• Popovich gave bettors some preseason advice last month: "I probably shouldn't say this, but I'll say it anyway," Popovich told reporters during a Sept. 26 press conference. "Nobody here should go to Vegas with thought of betting on us to win the championship.

"And I know somebody is going to say, 'Gosh, what a Debbie downer. There's a chance. What if they work really hard?' It's probably not going to happen."

Rockets fuel betting interest


• More money has been bet on the under on the Rockets' season-win total than has been bet on any other NBA futures offering at Points Bet. The Rockets opened at 27.5 and have been bet down to 23.5. Approximately 95% of the money bet on Houston's win total is on the under, with the bulk of it placed at under 27.5.

The second-most heavily bet futures bet at PointsBet? The Pelicans' over on their season-win total, which opened at 43.5 and has been bet up to 44.5.

Rockets fuel betting interest


• More money has been bet on the under on the Rockets' season-win total than has been bet on any other NBA futures offering at PointsBet. The Rockets opened at 27.5 and have been bet down to 23.5. Approximately 95% of the money bet on Houston's win total is on the under, with the bulk of it placed at under 27.5.

The second-most heavily bet futures bet at Points Bet? The Pelicans' over on their season-win total, which opened at 43.5 and has been bet up to 44.5.

NBA betting stats of note


• Favorites have covered the spread into 50.2% games, excluding pushes, over the last three regular seasons.
• 51.0% of games have gone under the total, excluding pushers, in the last three regular seasons.

Road teams have covered the spread in 51.3% of games, excluding pushers, over the last three regular seasons.