October 14, 2022 - BY Admin

Best NFL Betting Values for Early Week 7 NFL Lines: Going (AFC) North of a Look-Ahead Total

We're looking at the best Week 7 bets to make — before Week 6 action has even started  and we have our sights set on a divisional showdown total as a Week 7 look-ahead line to target.

Ohhhh Week 7. A schedule that only a bettor can love, with three primetime games that currently look like dreadful duds, a number of AFC-NFC clashes that are around a touchdown on the look-ahead spread, and then matchups like the Texans/Raiders and Packers/Commanders.

Not exactly exhilarating stuff... so why are we looking past the yet-to-be-played Week 6 to peer into the odds crystal ball?

Because there are a couple of matchups worth the words on this page — and one with NFL odds we should take note of asap.

First, we have a Super Bowl 54 rematch between the Chiefs and the 49ers, which seems pretty reasonably priced right now. There's also an AFC North tilt between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens that might have some betting value right now (and will provide plenty of heartaches later).

TeamsCurrent total
Browns Cleveland BrownsOver 45 (-110)
Ravens Baltimore RavensUnder 45 (-110)


There are two reasons why we're looking at playing the Over for this divisional matchup right now.

First, this total seems off compared to some of the other line movements Baltimore has seen around its totals this season.

The Ravens saw their total close as low as 45.5 last week for a primetime divisional matchup with the Bengals — a much better defensive team than Cleveland. That comes a week after the Ravens closed at around 50.5 against the Bills but in a rainy, wet afternoon contest. What's more of interest is:

  • The Ravens closed as high as 45 in Week 3 at New England.

  • Baltimore went from 45.5 to 43.5 in Week 2 when hosting the Dolphins, who were coming off a strong defensive effort in a 20-7 win.

  • The Ravens opened at 45.5 in Week 1 against a Joe Flacco-led Jets team.

New England and New York — both at the time of those games and, well, now — were perceived as nowhere as efficient offensively as the Browns are entering Week 6. Plus, both defenses are considered much better than the current Cleveland unit, which is a low bar because...

Point 2: the Browns (and Ravens) defenses are really not good.

Each of Baltimore's last two games went Under. Still, the Cincinnati game was more a result of both quarterbacks having arguably their worst games of the season (more than 20% of their throws were graded as "bad") and Lamar Jackson missing two consecutive wide-open TD passes, including this absolute gimme:

As for the Bills game, weather again suppressed passing and offense, plus the Bills have one of the league's elite defenses, so things should look up for the overall offensive prospects in Week 7.

Cleveland started the season with fourth-quarter defensive meltdowns against Baker Mayfield and those same Flacco-led Jets. Then it got a respite in the Steelers and Mitchell Trubisky (an offense so bad Pittsburgh has since gone to rookie Kenny Pickett) before choosing death by running attack the previous two weeks, giving up 202 rushing yards to the Falcons in Week 4 and allowing the Chargers — who were last in the NFL with 258 rushing yards through four games — to run for a whopping 238 in Week 5.